As the accusers of Harvey Weinstein tell their stories, statisticians and mathematicians alike are in awe of the sheer improbability that 57 different women made separate, false allegations against the Hollywood film producer.
In consultation with psychological models of human behavior, probability theorists have determined that there is a 1.37% chance for an individual woman to falsely accuse Harvey Weinstein of sexual misconduct. Assuming relative independence between women, the probability that all 57 “victims” lied about Weinstein is less than 1 in 10100. The fact that this astronomically improbable event has actually occurred has confounded the scientific community, and made the erroneous accusations from these actresses all the more astounding.
According to Princeton statistician Anita Rivers, “What a statistical miracle! It’s more likely that lightning would strike you during your wedding to Oprah Winfrey than it would be for 57 women to independently lie about the same thing.”
Probability theorists are already at work revising the basic laws of probability to account for this anomaly.
-JDB ’21